Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS64 KTSA 242348
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
648 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

 - Fog is expected to develop again tonight in the valleys of
   eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Some of this fog may
   be dense in spots.

 - After mostly quiet weather today into Monday, daily rain and
   storm chances are expected from Tuesday through the end of the
   week. Locally heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated flash
   flooding will be the main threat.

 - Temperatures remain near average for much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Weak surface ridging is expected to remain in place over the
south-central CONUS into tomorrow. While models show some high
cloud tonight, it is not expected to be widespread or thick. With
another night of good radiational cooling expected, will include
fog potential in the valleys of eastern OK and northwest AR again
tonight. There has been at least some dense fog the past two
nights, and without significant changes in the regime expected, it
is hard to argue against persistence. Will let the evening shift
refine the areas and issue an advisory if needed.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

PoPs have trended lower for Monday afternoon, with influence from
an approaching upper disturbance from TX expected to hold off
until Tuesday. The GFS/EC/UKMET show scattered showers and storms
Tuesday over at least portions of the area. A wave on the nose of
a subtropical jet is forecast to move into west TX by late
Tuesday, and is expected to force a large MCS there by Tuesday
night. While the bulk of this storm activity is forecast to stay
to our south and west, an area of low pressure aloft, likely
convectively enhanced to some degree, is expected to form and lift
north into western OK on Wednesday. The global models have
scattered showers and storms either lifting north into or
developing over the region during the day Wednesday, on its
eastern side. A NW-SE oriented trough will remain over the
forecast area through the end of the week, stuck beneath a
blocking ridge in the higher latitudes over central NOAM. Expect
daily shower and storm chances to continue, especially over
eastern portions of the forecast area on the eastern side of the
trough axis.

While there is no discernible signal for heavy rain evident in
ensemble data today, above normal PWATs will increase rainfall
efficiency from the heavier showers and storms that develop. Thus,
the potential for locally heavy rainfall still exists later this
week with any slow-moving or training storms. Deep layer shear is
expected to remain weak, thus organized severe weather is not
expected over the coming week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through this evening.
Radiational cooling will likely occur again tonight, with patchy
fog expected to develop again after midnight tonight. Will
maintain the previous forecast, keeping MVFR visibilities at most
TAF sites generally from 09-14z Monday morning. VFR is expected
to persist thereafter, with light east to southeast winds through
the daytime.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  84  63  83 /   0   0   0  30
FSM   64  85  66  83 /   0  10  10  60
MLC   62  86  64  84 /   0   0   0  40
BVO   57  85  60  83 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   56  83  61  81 /   0  10  10  70
BYV   58  81  61  78 /   0   0   0  70
MKO   60  84  63  82 /   0   0   0  40
MIO   58  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  40
F10   60  85  62  83 /   0   0   0  30
HHW   64  85  65  83 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67