Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

046
FXUS64 KTSA 141115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

  - Near record high temperatures possible today.

  - Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances
    southeast OK / northwest AR.

  - A more unsettled weather pattern develops by the end of the
    week and continues through the weekend into early next week.
    Severe weather potential likely increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Very warm to hot temperatures are expected today, with record or
near record highs in some places. Afternoon high temperatures will
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A weak frontal boundary will move across the area late tonight and
Thursday. A few high based showers may develop Thursday morning
from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas, with isolated
thunderstorm development possible Thursday afternoon and evening
near the weakening frontal boundary in this same general area. Any
storm that develops will have the potential to become strong to
severe.

Another weak frontal boundary pushes into the area Friday and
weakens, and may be the focus for a few thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening mainly southeast of Interstate 44. Again any
storm that forms may become strong to severe.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous
over the weekend into early next week as several shortwaves move
across the area ahead of the main upper trough to the west. Severe
storm potential will increase during this time period, especially
Sunday and Monday, with Monday afternoon and night perhaps seeing
the greatest potential for organized and more widespread severe
weather as the main upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, though an area of low clouds expanding across central AR
may build close enough to the NW AR sites for an inclusion of a
SCT low layer early in the period. Light SE winds will increase
and become more SW this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  68  85  64 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   91  73  87  68 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   91  71  86  67 /   0  10  20  10
BVO   90  62  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   86  69  84  63 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   85  70  85  65 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   90  71  85  65 /   0   0  20  10
MIO   86  68  82  62 /   0   0  10  10
F10   91  70  85  64 /   0   0  20  10
HHW   92  72  86  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14